After a summer of diplomacy, what next?

​A summer of frantic activity on the diplomatic and geopolitical fronts has come and gone, yielding very little change for the war in Ukraine. The much vaunted Alaska summit with its embarrassing red-carpet treatment for Russian President Vladimir Putin resulted in nothing more than words and gestures, while US President Donald Trump’s repeated deadlines and threats to impose secondary sanctions turned out to be nothing but hot air.

Much has been said about the increased pace of Russian territorial gains on the battlefield over the summer months - about 1,500 square kilometres in June, July and August according to Ukrainian monitoring group Deep State - more than double the territory it gained in the same period a year earlier. 


But Moscow has still failed to win control of any significant towns since the early months of the full-scale war back in 2022, and its gains continue to come at an insanely heavy cost in human lives - an average of more than 1,000 Russian casualties per day. Notably, the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk region has held out for almost a year since Russian forces first approached last October. And Ukrainian troops have managed to stymie or even reverse some of Russia’s territorial advances, particularly in Donetsk region and its cross-border offensive in Sumy region.

Moscow has accompanied its slow gains on the battlefield with a huge increase in lethal aerial attacks on civilian targets away from the front lines. In an obscene irony, each discussion between the US and Russia aimed at ending hostilities was swiftly followed by a colossal attack on Ukraine’s civilian population. The summer saw one grim record broken after another in terms of the number of missiles and drones fired at Ukrainian towns and cities, resulting in the deaths of dozens of civilians. 

Between June and September, Moscow repeatedly stepped up its bombardments, notably launching around 550 drones and missiles at Kyiv on 4 July - America’s symbolic Independence Day - and culminating overnight on 7 September with more than 800 drones and missiles fired across Ukraine including one that hit a government building in Kyiv and another that killed a mother and her newborn child.

But the war is not going all Russia’s way - far from it. The Russian economy is stuttering towards recession under pressure from spiralling military spending and Western sanctions. And despite its limited manpower and resources, Ukraine has honed tactics away from the front lines that seek to gradually strangle Putin’s war machine.

In late 2023, Kyiv began striking Russian energy and logistics infrastructure. For the next year or so, the attacks were sporadic and failed to achieve much lasting impact. But last month, it began a sustained, targeted assault on oil facilities and transport hubs that is threatening serious consequences for Russia. 

In short, its tactics involve flying dozens of drones at the same target to overwhelm Russia’s air defences, daily strikes on oil refineries across the length and breadth of Russia, and repeated attacks on the same facility within a few days or weeks to hamper repair efforts. 

Cunningly, Kyiv is increasingly targeting sophisticated refining units that rely on foreign parts and expertise for maintenance and repairs. With Western sanctions hampering imports of foreign equipment, some of these units may be forced offline for considerable periods of time. And with limited local expertise in repairing such complex engineering, repeated strikes on numerous facilities all across the country are likely to strain Moscow’s ability to bring its refining capacity back on stream.

There are signs that Kyiv’s strategy is beginning to bear fruit. With up to 20% of Russian refining capacity disrupted at one point, Russia's pipeline operator Transneft has reportedly warned that the country may need to curb its crude production because of inadequate storage in its network.

Oil and gas currently accounts for around a quarter of Russia’s budget and a third of its export revenues, so Kyiv’s campaign is clearly aimed at cutting Moscow’s revenue streams to hamper its ability to finance the war - military spending now makes up around a third of Moscow’s budget expenditure. 

As well as disrupting Russian revenues, Kyiv’s approach has a second aim: to curb the enemy’s effectiveness on the battlefield.

Repeated attacks on key energy infrastructure are prompting Moscow to move some of its air defences away from the front lines to help protect its most valuable refining assets. This will give Ukrainian drones a better chance to get through Russian defences in the combat zone to strike front-line targets.

And in addition to targeting oil refineries, Kyiv has also carried out drone strikes on rail logistics critical to Russian military supply lines, as well as energy storage depots, arms warehouses, chemical plants, pipelines and port facilities. Even temporary disruptions at critical hubs can create bottlenecks that prevent fuel and other essential supplies from reaching the front lines. 

Already some regions of Russia, notably the far east and occupied Crimea, are facing fuel shortages, with long queues at petrol stations, and fuel prices have spiked. 

The longer Kyiv maintains its current strategy, especially as it rolls out new, more powerful missiles with long-range capability, the more likely it becomes that fuel supplies to the military will be disrupted. As winter approaches, Moscow may struggle to supply its troops on the front line, impeding its ability to advance. 

And then, maybe, just maybe, Putin will be forced to the negotiating table with some willingness to compromise and take more seriously the West’s attempts to bring his heartbreaking war to an end.

For more a more in depth explanation of Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure from the Kyiv Independent, click here

Photo by Yuriy Vertikov on Unsplash

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