Putin is quaking in his boots

Longstanding dictatorships always seem invincible until suddenly they are not. Who would have thought a few months ago that Nicolas Maduro — president of Venezuela since 2013 — and Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — Iran’s supreme leader since 1989 — would both be gone in the space of a few weeks. 

Add in Syria’s Bashar Al-Assad -- overthrown in 2024 after ruling with an iron fist for a quarter of a century -- and Hungarian strongman Viktor Orban -- defeated in the polls last month after 16 years in power — and that makes four of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s top allies toppled or assassinated in the space of little over a year. If Kim Jong-Un were to suddenly pop, that would make a full house.

Putin is quaking in his boots. Word on the street is that he spends most of his time holed up in bunkers these days, displaying an obsessional interest in battlefield details in Ukraine. He and his family no longer visit his residences in Moscow region, and he hasn’t been seen at any military facilities for months. 

Putin is certainly not concerned that the US will unseat or bomb him (Donald Trump is still far too compliant towards Russia for that), nor is he afraid of electoral defeat, given that any serious opposition candidate is imprisoned or killed. He’s more scared of drone warfare, now that the Ukrainians have perfected the art of precision strikes and Moscow is well within range. But most of all, he is fearful of a coup or assassination attempt from those around him — much like his predecessor Joseph Stalin in his final years. Putin is said to be so distrustful of his staff that he has banned them from using mobile phones in his presence and had surveillance installed in their homes.

His paranoia is clearly visible in this year’s scaled down Victory Day parade on 9 May. Victory Day has since 2022 been the showcase for Russia’s military might in Ukraine and Putin’s mania for redefining his so-called “special military operation” as a continuation of the Soviet Union’s war against Nazi invaders.

For the first time in two decades, the parade will feature no tanks, armoured vehicles or missiles, and will be attended by just a handful of second-string foreign dignitaries. As in previous years, Putin has attempted to coerce Kyiv into a two-day ceasefire to enable him to hold his parade without the threat of disruption from Ukrainian drones. 

As the insecurity in the Kremlin intensifies, Putin is attempting to gain full control over the online space and curb the spread of information. Moscow has in recent months shut down most Internet services leaving ordinary Russians unable to conduct their normal daily business. WhatsApp, as well as Russia’s most widely used messaging platform --Telegram -- no longer work, the virtual private networks (VPNs) that many Russians use to circumvent widespread censorship and access unauthorised websites are blocked. Users are redirected to government-controlled “white-listed” websites and the state-monitored messaging service Max.

Far more than the war in Ukraine, the Internet outages have caused uproar in Russia. Putin’s approval ratings have declined steadily since the online crackdown began in February — and in a country where the media and practically all polling firms are controlled by the state, that is saying something in itself. Media influencers and the state-approved so-called “opposition” parties have railed against the curbs on Internet use, as have pro-war military bloggers and even Putin’s own security agents.

The clampdown has added to wider discontent among Russians. Rampant inflation driven by spiralling military spending has pushed up prices and caused shortages of some basic foodstuffs. Labour shortages are denting the reliability of Russia’s normally-frequent and punctual public transport, and preventing essential maintenance on critical infrastructure, like lifts (elevators) in high-rise apartment blocks. And Ukrainian long-range drone strikes across the length and breadth of Russia are bringing the war home to many who, for the last four years, have disregarded it as something remote. For ordinary Russians, it’s hard to escape the feeling that the country is going to the dogs.

Until recently, much of the compliant Russian populace failed to join the dots and attribute their woes directly to the war in Ukraine. But times are changing and Putin’s sagging poll ratings are evidence of this. It doesn’t necessarily mean that an uprising or a palace coup is imminent. But when change finally comes, it may happen very suddenly.